Election Results
I love watching the primary results roll in. I have wasted many an hour sitting there staring at the percentages change as the results roll in night after night. I was first sucked into this back when Iowa held their caucuses in early January. I remember them calling the race with something like 40% of the votes tabulated. I couldn't believe that with only 40% counted that they already knew who was going to win, so I sat there for another 2 or 3 hours convinced that the results would change as more votes came in, but they didn't. HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE? I am going to go mad trying to figure it out. I have watched every primary since, obssessed with those little numbers at the bottom of the screen.
For those who haven't seen what I'm talking about here is a hypothetical example: let's say the Rhode Island primary is going on and after 1% of the votes come in Romney leads with 37% of the votes (278), McCain is in second with 31% (233), Ron Paul is in third with 22% (165), and Huckabee is in fourth with 10% of the votes (75). Based on what I've witnessed so far you could almost call the race right there as I've rarely seen anyone move more than 4 percentage points. How is such a small sampling of independent thinking people so predicitive of the state as a whole? I sit there night after night willing the numbers to change dramatically and of course they never do. However if say with 55% of the votes counted, Romney has dropped to 35% and McCain has jumped to 32% then we are talking about some serious drama. Good times for the geeks! One note for the networks; you could make it much more riveting by adding a decimal point so that we could track movement within a percentage point easier.
The fact that a representative sampling of the votes is such an accurate predictor of the final results is apparently common knowledge as guys routinely give concession or victory speeches with less than 50% of the results in. I still don't get it; we come from an incalculable number of backgrounds and perspectives, are known for our freedom of thought and expression, surprise all the pollsters and pundits with how we end up voting and yet are so predictable that a small sample of our actual votes is enough to forecast the eventual outcome. How is this possible? Why aren't there wild fluctuations all night long? Somebody help me with this one.
Once
There are so few truly good movies out there that I feel obligated to let everybody know when I come across a great one. My buddy Eddie got me into a movie called Once. It's about a street singer and a girl he meets. Great plot, good dialogue, great background (Ireland), phenomenal music...it's a winner any way you look at it. One warning: they do say the F word a lot (but it's with an Irish accent so it sounds more like a cough). The movie is worth watching just for the scene in the music store. This movie has got soul. It also introduced me to the music of Glen Hansard, Marketa Irglova, and The Frames, all worth looking into.
I have had so many great conversations this week with people about the subject of my last blog. Thanks to all for helping me get some clarity. If you did read my last post, check out John's comment for a great rebuttal to the example I gave.
Here is a quote from a friend's blog that I found helpful, "Perhaps we’ve become too hyper-critical of ourselves to reach out to our own community. Too many times we compare ourselves with those who are receiving national or international acclaim or recognition for their achievements. The celebrity-style spotlight often leaves us feeling inadequate or inefficient in our own efforts to serve God. Instead, we should funnel the inspiration that comes from that attention into our own hearts and what God is doing through us to change the world around us." - Sam Gualtieri in Relevant magazine
5 comments:
I like those ads a lot, also, but, I like the guy in the restaurant and the guy in the basement more than the guy in the car. I think that's because the latter looks like such a dufus. On the flip side, I think the Old Mutual ads are extremely dumb. I will not buy something just because of good ads, but I will avoid buying things because I cannot stand their ads.
Being able to declare an election victor early is a function of that branch of mathmatics called statistics, which is, as you suggested, dependent on a good reprentative sample. The actual votes, while not pure in themselves [ballots from dead people, multiple votes by a single voter, etc.] give a pure representative sample. In contrast, polling samples can be good or bad. I think there is a new and growing sport in the U.S. called lying to the pollsters.
I think there is a flaw in your thinking when you talk about a large number of independent thinkers. I believe that very few people think for themselves because they do not have a well defined set of core beliefs. Most, probably without being aware of it, wait to be told what they should think, by frinds, teachers, family, pastors, the media. Thanks be to God, though, you are among the minority.
friends, not frinds, in last paragraph above
Once - one more than I should have!
Sorry, but it is true to form. You loved it, I didn't. So sad.
I love that song. Especially the F-R-E-E that spells free version. It is very catchy. Jeremy this is an old friend from your Eau Claire days. How ya doing? Todd Ketterhagen I haven't figured out how to e-mail you on your blog except this feature. I hope it works.
Hey Todd - you can email us at lonestarbadgers@yahoo.com I just checked our email and I couldn't find you in our address book either.
I can picture you coming up with both of those commercials. Bob and Paula still talk about you and Ben doing Hans and Frans.
Send me an email and we'll talk more. - Jer
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